Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771

ENGINEERING COLLOQUIUM

Monday, April 26, 2004 / 3:30 PM, Building 3 Auditorium

James Oberg

"CHINA'S GREAT LEAP UPWARD -- How Realistic Are Its Space Ambitions?"

ABSTRACT -- The long-anticipated first Chinese manned space flight occurred with the Shenzhou-5 launch last October, and now the question is -- what next? Will China pursue its own orbits in space, or join with the International Space Station? How will China target, acquire, and apply space and rocket technology? What are the main purposes of their significant space expenditures? China's pride in its recent accomplishments has resulted in a remarkable openness about their program, including official policy papers, in-depth interviews with officials and workers, and some tantalizing clues about future projects. It's now clear that aside from learning from other national programs, and on a case-by-case basis buying specific hardware items, the Chinese program is NOT just a 'copy' of foreign hardware. Their step-by-step exploratory plans involve both unmanned lunar missions and the development of a small man-tended 'space lab'. Applications satellites are being developed across a wide spectrum of programs. Lastly, the Beijing government intends to perform top-down management of narrowly focused technology development for future applications, a very risky strategy. The Chinese activities themselves can contribute to other national space programs. They have developed and publicized innovative engineering and management approaches to common problems. They have shown that there is no 'cheap' way toward safe human space flight. And they have reminded others that space accomplishments are more than mere show-off status symbols, they are propellant for national intellectual and commercial vigor.

SPEAKER -- James Oberg, 58, is a widely published author on the past, present, and future of space flight. He is currently the NBC News "space consultant" on the Columbia catastrophe and NASA's recovery from it, and through his efforts NBC has led the news media in breaking new stories, providing new insights, and avoiding garbles and wild goose chases. This work is detailed on his home page (www.jamesoberg.com). His most recent book is 'Star-Crossed Orbits: Inside the US/Russian Space Alliance', which describes the development of the International Space Station and discusses the impact of the Russian partnership on NASA safety standards. His December 1999 article in 'Spectrum', entitled "Why The Mars Probe Went Off Course", described the root cause of the loss of the Mars Climate Orbiter, i.e., inadequate safety standards rather than merely a confusion of English and metric units; the article received the silver medal for editorial excellence from the American Society of Business Publications Editors. Oberg had a 22-year career as a space engineer at Mission Control in Houston, where, as a contractor employee, he specialized in NASA space shuttle operations for orbital rendezvous. He wrote several reference handbooks and compiled the document, "A History of Orbital Rendezvous". In honor of his pioneering work on developing and documenting space shuttle rendezvous techniques, he was named by the NASA-Area "Association of Technical Societies" as their 1984 "Technical Person of the Year", the first year such an award was given. In 1997, for his coordination of orbital design efforts for the first International Space Station mission, he received the 'Sustained Superior Performance' award.